With temperatures reaching as high as 36 degrees this week in the UK, Tenzo, examined more than 20,000 venue-day trading observations across London and the South East across five separate heatwave periods between June 2025 and May 2026, uncovering a much more nuanced picture than the common assumption that hot weather is always good for hospitality.
Key findings include:
- Only one of the five heatwave periods analysed produced a clear and broadly positive uplift for hospitality businesses, with July and August 2025 heatwaves actually resulting in median week-on-week sales declines of -4.0 percent and -3.3 percent respectively.
- Outdoor, riverside and park-adjacent venues consistently outperformed indoor venues, delivering a median week-on-week sales increase of +2.8 percent, compared to a median decline of -0.6 percent for indoor venues.
- Heatwaves shift where consumers spend rather than guaranteeing overall sector growth, concentrating demand in outdoor and casual formats while many indoor venues struggle to benefit.
The findings suggest that while heatwaves create opportunities for some operators, particularly those with outdoor space, they do not automatically translate into higher revenues across the hospitality sector.
